How Douglas Ross's big general election gamble could rest on a handful of votes

Douglas Ross has a fight on his hands. “It will come down to potentially a handful of votes,” the outgoing Scottish Conservative leader told The Scotsman. Polls show the result on a “knife-edge”.

Earlier this month, Mr Ross gambled his political future by announcing he would stand as the Tory candidate in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East instead of David Duguid, who has been in hospital and was effectively de-selected.

The move sparked an immediate backlash. In response, Mr Ross, who was previously the MP for Moray, said he would resign as party leader after the election on July 4, and would also quit as an MSP if he is re-elected to Westminster.

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross. Picture: Jane Barlow/PA Wire

In short, there is a lot at stake. "People know this is a very close seat, and I'm not trying to hide that in any way,” Mr Ross said. Indeed, one of his key messages is that a vote for anyone else – or no one – risks letting the SNP in.

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East is a new seat, but analysis suggests the Tories would have won it by 2,399 votes in 2019. Polling points to a tight contest between Mr Ross and the SNP. For the latter, this seat is now a key target.

The Tories arguably received a boost when Labour, which was never going to win here, recently suspended its candidate, Andy Brown, over alleged “pro-Russian” posts on social media. The hope is some Labour-supporting unionists may now lend their vote to Mr Ross instead.

Seamus Logan, the SNP candidate, said he is feeling “optimistic”. Mr Ross’s decision to enter the contest made no difference to his campaign, he said, “because we've had a campaign plan for seven months now and we're in the middle of executing it”.

However, he described the Scottish Tory leader’s treatment of Mr Duguid as “really disgraceful”, adding: "David was busily tweeting that he was still ready, willing and able to fight the seat, and for Douglas to appoint himself in circumstances where he's not actually met David, as far as I'm aware, he has not gone to see him, was quite disgraceful.

"But in regards to whether it was David Duguid, Douglas Ross, it doesn't really matter to us. We're campaigning to win the seat on the platform that we've set out to people."

Both candidates highlight fishing and farming as key issues, as well as the oil and gas industry. The latter is “crucial”, said Mr Ross. "People up here feel they've been betrayed by the SNP – a party that is trying to say one thing to the Central Belt in Scotland and dupe people in the north-east that somehow they're still on their side up here,” he added.

Mr Logan, who has been a councillor since 2022, said he was “really, really fed up with the way that the Conservative Party has completely misrepresented the SNP's position” on the North Sea. “We're not going to turn off the taps, that's absolute rubbish,” he said. “But neither are we going to impose a higher windfall tax, as the Labour Party are suggesting.”

The SNP Government previously proposed a presumption against new licences under Humza Yousaf and Nicola Sturgeon. Put to him that his party’s position has been confused, Mr Logan said the SNP’s stance “has changed and is changing”.

He said: "We've got a new leader, as you know. Since Nicola left we had Humza, but now we've got John Swinney, and John is certainly marking out a shift in the SNP's position. So yes, it has changed – I wouldn't say confused. For those who look at it in detail, there's no confusion. Where the confusion comes from is because the Conservative Party, and others, pump out this message that we're going to turn off the taps. That was never the case."

Post-Brexit trade deals have hurt local farmers, Mr Logan said, while immigration rules have hit the fish processing industry in Fraserburgh. Mr Ross insisted Brexit was not as much of an issue as it was in 2019. "I've never met a fisherman that wants to go back into the CFP [common fisheries policy],” he said.

Both men raise issues relating to the health service – specifically, access to minor injuries units in Peterhead, Fraserburgh and Huntly. Mr Logan also said the cost-of-living crisis was “hurting people very, very badly”.

Asked if he accepted his personal reputation was at stake, Mr Ross said: “I think every candidate in every constituency wants to win, and I'm getting out there and fighting for every vote in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, because it's going to be a crucial electoral test.”

The situation with Mr Duguid has come up on the doorsteps, he said. “A lot of people are just concerned about David and want to know how he's doing,” he said. “He and I worked closely together for seven years as neighbouring MPs, so the vast majority of the conversations I have about David on the doorstep is people wishing him well and hoping he makes a full recovery."

Mr Ross confirmed he has still not spoken to him. "We've messaged back and forth, but obviously while he's still in hospital I don't want to put any pressure on him speaking to people,” he said. “The offer is there when he feels able to and within the confines of ensuring that his treatment and rehabilitation is the top priority for both of us."

Jo Hart is contesting the seat for Reform UK, while Ian Bailey is running for the Liberal Democrats. Both have been embroiled in rows – Ms Hart over a social media post calling the Royal Family “benefit scroungers”, and Mr Bailey over “offensive and ignorant” online comments.

Elsewhere, Mr Brown will remain on the ballot paper, but his suspension from Labour means he will sit as an independent if elected.