The predicted winner of every Scottish seat analysed - where the polls agree and disagree, seats on knife edge

Some of the polls agree on the outcome on July 4, but many don’t - take a look to see who is safe and who is not

With less than a week to go until the general election on July 4, it looks like some seats in Scotland are safer than others.

Around a dozen different polls have been published, highlighting how some seats are safe, some are a two-horse race, and some we really just don’t know.

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We’ve taken a look at polls from Savanta, Ipsos, More in Common, Survation, YouGov, Britain Predicts, Focaldata, FT, Economist, Electoral Calculus, WeThink and electionmaps, and compared them to see which seats are safe - and which are not.

The polls are in agreement - these seats look safe

  • Aberdeen North - Kirsty Blackman, SNP

  • Aberdeen South - Stephen Flynn (two polls, Savanta and WeThink, say Taqueer Mailk, Labour)

  • Airdrie and Shotts - Kenneth Stevenson, Labour

  • Angus and Perthshire Glens - Dave Doogan - SNP

  • Arbroath and Broughty Ferry - Stephen Gethins, SNP (More in Common says Cheryl-Ann Cruikshank, Labour)

  • Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber - Brendan O’Hara, SNP (Savata thinks Hamish Maxwell, Labour)

  • Caithness, Sutherland and Bellshill - Jamie Stone, Lib Dem (More in Common says Lucy Beattie, SNP)

  • Coatbridge and Bellshill - Frank McNally, Labour (Survation thinks Steven Bonnar, SNP)

  • Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy - Melanie Ward, Labour

  • Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale - David Mundell, Conservative (two polls, Electoral Calculus and WeThink, say Daniel Coleman, Labour)

  • Dunfermline and Dollar - Graeme Downie, Labour (two polls, Electoral Calculus and WeThink, say Naz Anis Miah, SNP)

  • East Kilbride and Strathaven - Joani Reid, Labour (Britain Predicts says Grant Constello, SNP)

  • Edinburgh East and Musselburgh - Chris Murray, Labour (two polls, Survation and YouGov, say Tommy Sheppard, SNP)

  • Edinburgh South - Ian Murray, Labour

  • Edinburgh West - Christine Jardine, Lib Dems (YouGov says Euan Hyslop, SNP)

  • Falkirk - Toni Giugliano, SNP (two polls, Survation and Focaldata, say Euan Stainbank, Labour)

  • Glasgow East - John Grady, Labour (Survation says David Linden, SNP)

  • Glasgow North - Martin Rhodes, Labour (Survation says Alison Thewliss, SNP)

  • Glasgow North East - Maureen Burke, Labour (Survation says Anne McLaughlin, SNO)

  • Glasgow South - Gordon McKee, Labour (two polls, Survation and WeThink, say Stewart McDonald, SNP)

  • Glasgow South West - Zubir Ahmed, Labour (two polls, Survation and Electoral Calculus, say Chris Stephens, SNP)

  • Glasgow West - Patricia Ferguson, Labour (Survation says Carol Monaghan, SNP)

  • Hamilton and Clyde Valley - Imogen Walker, Labour

  • Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West - Martin McCluskey, Labour (WeThink says Ronnie Cowan, SNP)

  • Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire - Drew Hendry, SNP

  • Lothian East - Douglas Alexander, Labour

  • Mid Dunbartonshire - Susan Murray, Lib Dem (Savanta says Lorna Dougall, Labour)

  • Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey - Graham Leadbitter, SNP

  • Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke - Pamela Nash, Labour (two polls, Survation and Electoral Calculus, say Marion Fellows, SNP)

  • North East Fife - Wendy Chamberlain, Lib Dem (More in Common says Stefan Hoggan-Radu, SNP)

  • Orkney and Shetland - Alistair Carmichael, Lib Dem (More in Common says Robert Leslie, SNP)

  • Paisley and Renfrewshire North - Alison Tayler, Labour (Britain Predicts says Gavin Newlands, SNP)

  • Paisley and Renfrewshire South - Johanna Baxter, Labour (WeThink says Jacqueline Cameron, SNP)

  • Perth and Kinross-shire - Pete Wishart, SNP

  • Rutherglen - Michael Shanks, Labour

  • Stirling and Strathallan - Alyn Smith (Electoral Calculus says Chris Kane, Labour)

  • West Dunbartonshire - Douglas McAllister, Labour (two polls, Survation and WeThink, say Martin Docherty-Hughes, SNP)

The polls are split - it’s a two-horse race

  • Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - four polls say Douglas Ross, Conservative, eight say Seamus Logan, SNP

  • Alloa and Grangemouth - eight polls say John Nicolson, SNP, four say Brian Leishman, Labour

  • Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock - four say Allan Dorans, SNP, eight say Elaine Stewart, Labour

  • Bathgate and Linlithgow - three say Martyn Day, SNP, nine say Kirsteen Sullivan, Labour

  • Central Ayrshire - four say Annie McIndoe, SNP, eight say Alan Gemmell, Labour

  • Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch - five say Stuart McDonald, SNP, seven say Katrina Murray, Labour

  • Dundee Central - seven say Chris Law, SNP, five say Richard McCready, Labour

  • East Renfrewshire - five say Kirsten Oswald, SNP, seven say Blair McDougall, Labour

  • Edinburgh South West - five say Joanna Cherry KC, seven say Scott Arthur, Labour

  • Glenrothes and Mid Fife - three say John Beare, SNP, nine say Richard Baker, Labour

  • Gordon and Buchan - six say Richard Thomson, SNP, six say Harriet Cross, Conservative

  • Kilmarnock and Loudon - five say Alan Brown, SNP, seven say Lillian Jones, Labour

  • Livingston - three say Hannah Bardell, SNP, nine say Gregor Poynton, Labour

  • Na h-Eileanan Siar - six say Susan Thomson, SNP, seven say Torcuil Crichton, Labour

  • North Ayrshire and Arran - seven say Patricia Gibson, SNP, five say Irene Campbell, Labour

The polls are all over the place - it’s anyone’s game

  • Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - two say David Wilson, SNP, one says Caitlin Stott, Labour, and nine say John Lamont, Conservative

  • Dumfries and Galloway - seven say Tracey Little, SNP, one says James Wallace, Labour, and four say John Cooper, Conservative

  • West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine - three say Andrew Bowie, Conservative, one says Kate Blake, Labour, and eight say Glen Reynolds, SNP

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