Mega-poll reveals the 22 Scottish seats on a knife-edge as SNP-Labour now neck and neck

A new mega-poll has revealed the SNP and Labour are neck-and-neck in their push for Scottish seats – but almost two dozen constituencies remain hanging on a knife-edge.

The first MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) poll from Survation interviewed 30,044 people between 22 May and 2 June – handing Labour a 262-seat majority across the UK. But in Scotland, the study revealed that the SNP and Labour are tussling over marginal seats.

It is generally accepted that while the MRP ‘mega-polls’ can be accurate at forecasting how many seats each party is likely to win, they can get things wrong at a constituency level.

The latest MRP poll for Survation puts Labour on 25 and the SNP on 24 – while YouGov’s mega-poll earlier this month predicted Labour would win 34 seats, overtaking the SNP which would be left with just 17 MPs.

Almost half of the seats in Scotland are classed as a toss up between two parties – where the party ahead hold a lead of only five per cent or less.

The most obvious example of how close things are is in Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West where Survation has forecast things are exactly level.

Which Scottish seats are on a knife-edge?

Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West, where Survation ranks Labour and the SNP exactly level, is not the only seat north of the Border where the result will be close. The Conservatives’ lead in Dumfries and Galloway over the SNP is just 0.2 per cent, Labour hold a slender 0.3 per cent lead over the SNP in Glasgow South West and only a 0.4 per cent advantage in Na h-Eileanan an Iar.

In Glasgow East, the SNP are just 0.4 per cent ahead of Labour, while John Swinney’s party is just 0.7 per cent ahead of the Tories in the new Gordon and Buchan constituency. In Edinburgh North and Leith, Labour is expected to take the seat from the SNP – but only has a lead of 0.9 per cent, according to the Survation research.

The new Mid Dunbartonshire constituency is predicted to be won by Labour, but the party is only 1.2 per cent ahead of the Liberal Democrats. Labour is ahead of the SNP in Paisley and Renfrewshire North but only by 1.5 per cent. In West Dunbartonshire, the SNP is 1.8 per cent ahead of Labour, according to the mega-poll.

In Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, where Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross is eyeing up a controversial Westminster return, he only holds a 2.2 per cent lead over the SNP, Labour is 2.5 per cent ahead in Glasgow North East, but the SNP is only 2.6 per cent ahead in Kilmarnock and Loudoun.

The SNP also has a lead of under five per cent in Stirling and Strathallan, Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber, Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock and Edinburgh East and Musselburgh.

Labour also has a marginal lead in Glenrothes and Mid Fife, Bathgate and Linlithgow and Glasgow South. The Conservatives’ lead over the SNP in Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk is also less than five per cent.