Scotland's dream Euros results: what Scotland want to happen in other group matches to qualify for last 16

Scotland kept their hopes of progressing to the knock-out stages of Euro 2024 alive with a battling 1-1 draw against Switzerland in Cologne on Wednesday.

A 5-1 defeat to hosts Germany in the tournament opener had dented optimism but the hard-earned point against a Swiss side ranked 20 places above them in the Fifa rankings has given Scotland every chance of going beyond the group stages of a major finals for the first time in history.

The likelihood, however, is that Steve Clarke and his players will not be able to 100 per cent secure their place in the last 16, even with a win over Hungary, as they look to qualify as one of the best third-placed finishers. There is even a scenario – albeit a very slim one – whereby Scotland could qualify with just two points following a draw against Hungary if a favourable set of results go their way.

Scotland fans applaud the team after the 1-1 draw with Switzerland at Euro 2024.

Only the top two in each group are guaranteed to progress. Germany are top of Group A with six points and have already qualified. Switzerland are second on four points, a tally Scotland can match if they defeat Hungary and Switzerland lose to Germany. However, for Scotland to overtake Switzerland and qualify automatically as group runners-up, there would need to be a six-goal swing. Switzerland are currently on +2 goal difference while Scotland are -4. Convincing wins for both Scotland and Germany in the final group games, which kick-off concurrently at 8pm this Sunday, may be enough to swing the goal difference back in Scotland’s favour and secure second place in the group.

The more likely scenario is that a victory over Hungary would leave Scotland with an anxious wait to see whether their four-point tally would be enough to reach the last 16 as one of four best third-placed finishers. The positive news is that no country has failed to qualify for the Euros knock-out stages with a four-point tally since the current format was introduced in 2016 so Scotland would have to be extremely unlucky not to do so.

If they reach their four point target, Scotland will require at least two third-placed sides to finish on three points or less, or four points but with an inferior goal difference. If they draw with Hungary, third place would be secured but their two-point tally would put them at serious risk of exiting the tournament. In such a scenario, Scotland would need at least two third-placed sides to finish on one point, or two points with an inferior goal difference. If Scotland lose to Hungary then they are out of the tournament as they would finish bottom of the group.

Scotland’s best hopes of progressing as a third placed side are for teams who are currently in the top two positions in their groups to win their remaining matches, and for the teams likely to be battling for third and fourth positions to draw their games against each other.

In Group B, defeats for Albania and Croatia in their final group matches, against Spain and Italy respectively, would leave both sides on one point which would be good news for Scotland. A similar scenario is possible in Group D if Poland v Austria ends in a draw, and the pair both lose to France and Netherlands respectively. In Group E, a draw in the Belgium v Ukraine game, coupled with both sides losing to Romania and Slovakia respectively, would see both finish on one point. Finally in Group F, Czech Republic and Georgia are both pointless, meaning that if they draw their match against each other, and lose to Turkey and Portugal respectively, then they will finish on one point each.

That is potentially four groups where teams could finish third with just one point – a dream outcome for Scotland if they were to draw with Hungary. The only group where a third-place side is guaranteed to finish on least two points is Group C. Slovenia are currently third on one point, and are still to face Slovakia, who are currently bottom on zero points. If that games ends in a draw, and both sides lose to England and Denmark respectively, then Slovenia will finish third on two points.

Should all of the above results come to fruition then Scotland could qualify on two points with a draw against Hungary. However, no side has qualified with two draws in the three tournaments since the current format was brought in. It is most likely that Scotland will need to beat Hungary and hope that four points proves enough.

It should be noted that Hungary can still qualify with a win over Scotland if at least two third-placed teams finish on two points or less, or three points with an inferior goal difference. Whatever happens in Stuttgart on Sunday, it will be a waiting game for either side until the last set of group matches conclude on Wednesday, June 26.

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