How Scotland can qualify for Euros last 16 despite crushing Germany defeat

Scotland may have kicked off their Euro 2024 campaign with a crushing 5-1 defeat in Munich but there is still plenty for Steve Clarke's side to play for as they bid to make history.

Losing to Germany in the tournament opener was not entirely unexpected given Scotland's underdog status against the highly-fancied hosts but the manner of it was somewhat dispiriting in a dismal performance that saw Ryan Porteous sent off with a consolation own goal at 4-0 down providing the Tartan Army’s only moment to cheer.

Nevertheless, Scotland must quickly put the disappointment behind them as focus now turns turn to their remaining Group A fixtures against Switzerland and Hungary, and what may be required to go beyond the group stages of a major finals for the first time.

Scotland's Anthony Ralston looks dejected after Niclas Fuellkrug scors Germany's fourth in the Euro 2024 opener in Munich. (Photo by Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images)

Clarke's men still have it all within their own hands to qualify for the last 16 with six points still up for grabs. Two wins and Scotland would guarantee their place in the next round.History tells us that four points would almost certainly be enough to reach the knock-out stages as every nation to have achieved this total has done so since the current format was introduced in 2016. A win and a draw – in any order – would put Scotland in a strong position to progress.

Three points would come with less guarantees but could still potentially allow Scotland to sneak out of the group stages providing they can improve their goal difference, which will be a tall order given they are already on minus four. In Euro 2020, Denmark managed to progress with three points as group runners-up and a +1 goal difference. However, the most likely path into the knock-out phase for teams with one win and two defeats would be as one of the one of the four best third-place finishers. Ukraine managed it in 2020 with a -1 goal difference and both Portugual and Northern Ireland progressed with a zero goal difference in 2016.

Should Scotland recover from their inauspicious start and qualify for the last 16 who might they face? The schedule has already been drawn out and their opponents – if they finish in either first or second in the group – would come from either Group B or C.

The Group A winner will face the Group C runner-up in Dortmund on Saturday June 29 while the Group A runner-up will face the Group B runner-up in Berlin on the same day. Potential opponents from Group B include Spain, Croatia, Italy and Albania while possible Group C foes include Slovenia, Denmark, Serbia and ... England. What odds on a battle of Britain clash in the last 16?

If Scotland finish third and qualify then they will face one of the winners from Group B, E or F. That would set up the prospect of a potential last 16 clash against one of the big guns such as Spain or Italy from Group B, Belgium from Group E or Portugal from Group F.