How Scotland can qualify for Euros last 16 with two points if they draw against Hungary

Scotland will attempt to make history and book their place in the knock-out stages of Euro 2024 when they face Hungary on Sunday evening.

Never before has a Scotland side made it beyond the group stages of a major tournament but Steve Clarke’s side have put themselves in a strong position to do so. A 5-1 defeat to Germany in the opening match was a major setback but Scotland recovered to claim their first point with a 1-1 draw against Switzerland.

It means that avoiding defeat to Hungary, who have zero points after losing to both Switzerland and Germany, would clinch a third place finish in Group A for Scotland. That could be enough to qualify to the last 16 with the four best third-placed sides set to progress to the next phase, along with the top two in each group. Scotland will only claim a second place finish if they defeat Hungary and Switzerland lose to Germany with a six-goal swing in goal difference.

Scotland head coach Steve Clarke arrives in Stuttgart ahead of the Euro 2024 Group A fixture against Hungary. Pic: Andrew Milligan/PA Wire.

A victory would move Scotland onto four points which would most likely earn passage into the knock-out stages as no nation has failed to progress with that tally since the current format was introduced in 2016. A draw would leave Scotland on two points – and more vulnerable to an early exit – but it could still be enough to qualify for the knock-out stages if certain results elsewhere go in their favour.

Georgia’s draw with Czech Republic on Saturday was good news for Scotland in that regard as it means there are now three other groups where the third place team can finish with a worse record than the two points and -4 goal difference Scotland would have in the event of a draw with Hungary.

The three groups Scotland will be keeping an eye on are Group B, Group C and Group F. In Group B, if Spain beat Albania and Italy beat Croatia, then Albania will finish third with just one point. In Group C, if Denmark beat Serbia and England beat Slovenia, then Slovenia will finish third on two points. To overturn the goal difference in Scotland’s favour, England would have to win by 4 – provided Scotland score more against Hungary than Slovenia do against England – otherwise England would need to win by 5. In Group F, if Portugal beat Georgia and Turkey beat Czech Republic then the Czechs will finish third on one point.

Scotland would need only two of those three group scenarios to play out as above to progress with two points but their chances of continuing in the tournament will increase significantly if they defeat Hungary to finish on four points. It should also be noted that Hungary can still qualify for the last 16 if they beat Scotland – a result which would knock Clarke’s men out of the tournament. But after 70 years of being nearly men in major finals, Scotland will be hoping that 2024 is finally their year.