Are Scotland out of the Euros if they lose to Switzerland? What defeat would mean for last 16 hopes

Scotland's 5-1 defeat to Germany in the opening match of Euro 2024 has left them with a lot of work to do to salvage their hopes of reaching the latter stages of a major finals for the first time.

Hopes were high going into the tournament that Steve Clarke's side could make history be progressing to the knock-out stages but the humbling in Munich has dented confidence among the Tartan Army.

The onus is now on the squad to deliver a morale-boosting performance and result in their next match against Switzerland in Cologne on Wednesda y that restores faith and keeps them in contention to progress from Group A.

Scotland's head coach Steve Clarke leads a training session at the team's base camp in Garmisch-Partenkirchen on the eve of their Euro 2024 Group A football match against Switzerland. (Photo by MIGUEL MEDINA/AFP via Getty Images)

The good news is that Scotland’s fate is still very much in the own hands. A victory - or even a draw - would keep Scotland's hopes very much alive going into their final group match against Hungary in Stuttgart on Sunday.

Another defeat, however, would be a disaster for Clarke’s men. While it would not mathematically knock Scotland out of the Euros, it would make it almost impossible for them to qualify for the next stage due to their goal difference disadvantage.

The top two nations in each group qualify automatically for the last 16, as well as the four best third-place finishers across the six groups. Four points would almost certainly be enough for Scotland to secure one of those spots, but any teams finishing on three points would rely on goal difference to see them through.

Of the four teams who have progressed with three points over the last two Euros, only one has done so with a negative goal difference. Ukraine managed it in 2020 with a -1 goal differnece, Portugal and Northern Ireland progressed with a zero goal difference in 2016 while Denmark did so with a +1 goal difference in 2020.

Scotland are already on minus four – the worst goal difference in the tournament after the opening fixtures – meaning even a single-goal defeat to Switzerland would leave them on minus five and needing to beat Hungary by at least five clear goals to claw back the goal difference and give themselves a chance of sneaking into the knock-out stages through the back door. To avoid leaving themselves with such a near-impossible task, Scotland must avoid defeat to the Swiss.

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