Why the SNP losing the next two elections could be good for independence

If the polls are to be believed, the SNP are in trouble. Aside from a few outliers, Labour are almost universally predicted to win the majority of seats in Scotland.

This isn’t just a fact that will help deliver Sir Keir Starmer a landslide, but also one that could strike the final blow into the dying, decaying and floundering corpse of independence. What’s worse, it’s all the SNP’s fault.It didn’t have to be like this. The election could have been about issues, a debate around ideas where if recent history was followed, they’d win handsomely and have an arguable mandate for a second vote.

Instead, by floating Nicola Sturgeon’s de-facto referendum idea, the party has put itself into a position where it could not win a majority of seats in Scotland, and still demand an independence referendum. In short, the SNP could become the democracy deniers.

First Minister and SNP leader John Swinney faces an impossible task, writes Alexander Brown. Picture: Stefan Rousseau/PA

This has come about for a number of reasons, the first of which being that the Scottish Government are, if you look at the record rather than rhetoric, not especially good. Sure there’s free tuition fees and free prescriptions, obviously good policies, but there’s also the widening attainment gap, NHS waiting times, and drug deaths. These are failures of policy, from a Government that tells you it’s progressive while gutting councils.

Secondly, there’s the absurd levels of scandal tearing through the party. There’s Operation Branchform and Michael Matheson. There’s the camper van, and multiple resignations over transparency.

These speak to a culture of denial and avoidance, and it shows in the polls. Independence remains pretty popular, staying near or about 50 per cent, but it’s the SNP who have fallen. Voters are not sick of independence, they’re sick of a Government quick to call out others but even quicker to cover up for its own.

So now it faces an existential crisis. Labour are, as the SNP and Tories keep telling us, going to win the election, and win it outright. There will be no need for deals, there will be no red lines for the SNP to argue over, they will return in fewer numbers and with less clout in their demands for another vote. They and independence will be weaker. A Labour Government will spurn the SNP, having no reason to negotiate.

Despite this, the First Minister claimed this week that the Holyrood result was actually a mandate, and so focusing on this election result would be ignoring the will of the Scottish people. If you don’t like this mandate, I have others.

So then to Holyrood, 2026, where the polls are narrow, and no clear winner is defined. Here lies opportunity, both for redemption, but also, the end. Losing would mean the SNP had lost control of government, lost any sense of a majority in Scotland, and in a position to do nothing but now ask two governments if they could please sir, have another vote.

Perhaps it would be good for independence. Time for a reset, some harsh conversations, finally working out the currency situation. But sorting themselves out now would go a long way. The party is facing down the barrel. Denial is high, the polling numbers are not. It’s now or never.