What are the key challenges facing John Swinney as First Minister and SNP leader?

Mr Swinney was confirmed as the new leader of the SNP on Monday

John Swinney will not have his troubles to seek. The new SNP leader, who will become Scotland’s seventh first minister this week, inherits a number of problems both in his party and in the country at large. He will be all too aware of the difficulties ahead.

His predecessor, Humza Yousaf, never really managed to get on the front foot. Within days of him taking office last year, the police investigation into the SNP’s funding and finances exploded into the headlines. It has haunted the party ever since.

Mr Swinney will seek to heal internal divisions and boost his party’s fortunes in the polls ahead of an expected general election later this year. He has also emphasised the importance of economic growth. So what are the key challenges he faces?

Newly elected leader of the SNP, John Swinney, delivers his acceptance speech at the Advanced Research Centre at Glasgow University. Picture: Jane Barlow/PA Wire

A clear vision

Mr Swinney will want to set out a clear strategic direction for his party. This is something his predecessor arguably struggled to do. Mr Yousaf hiked income tax for higher earners at the same time as freezing council tax, which some saw as sending a muddled message.

“Is this a guy who has demonstrated clear strategic direction?" asked polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice when I spoke to him last month. “Answer – no. Increases one set of taxes and reduces another set of taxes.”

At his leadership campaign launch last week, Mr Swinney said his goals as first minister “will come straight from that moderate centre-left tradition – the pursuit of economic growth and of social justice”.

John Swinney

Policy rows

Mr Swinney referenced the “curse” of child poverty, as well as the need to bring people and businesses “with us” in the pursuit of net zero.

"I want ministers to be focused on the delivery of services on which the public depend – on health, on education, on housing, on transport – so people see their lives are getting better as a result of the actions of their government,” he told supporters last week.

The Scottish Government has been embroiled in a number of policy rows in recent months. Prof Curtice said SNP ministers have had “a wee bit, seemingly, of a reverse Midas touch”, adding: “They cannot stop the mud being stuck on them.”

Will Mr Swinney seek to steer away from controversial issues such as gender reform and conversion therapy to focus resources elsewhere? Polling shows there are real concerns about areas such as health and education in Scotland.

Minority government

Following the end of the power-sharing deal between the SNP and the Greens, Mr Swinney will not have a parliamentary majority. This is not necessarily a huge stumbling block – after all, both Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon previously presided over minority administrations.

However, as Mr Swinney acknowledged, it does mean his party’s approach will have to change. The Greens have said they will engage on an “issue-by-issue basis”. Depending on what Mr Swinney chooses to pursue, there could be some rocky ground ahead.

General election

The SNP potentially faces a tough general election in a few months’ time. Polls show support for the SNP has slipped, while Labour is on the rise in Scotland. The Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election last year saw a huge 20.4 per cent swing from the SNP to Labour.

Once a narrative takes hold in politics, it can be hard to shift. Can Mr Swinney turn things around?

Party unity

At his leadership launch, Mr Swinney said the SNP “is not as cohesive” as it needs to be.

“I could have stood back and hoped others would sort things out,” he said. “But I care too much about the future of Scotland and the Scottish National Party to walk on by. Just as we must fight against the polarisation of our politics, we cannot allow the SNP to be polarised.”

The modern SNP was once renowned for its iron discipline, but divisions have been increasingly apparent in recent years. Figures such as Joanna Cherry, the high-profile MP, and Fergus Ewing, the former minister who is now a backbench rebel, have been outspoken critics of the party’s leadership.

Gender reform and the SNP’s power-sharing deal with the Greens were both sources of controversy. But there have also been disagreements over independence strategy, as well as a wider dissatisfaction in some quarters with the direction of the party.

Mr Swinney recognises he will need to “bring the SNP back together again”.

Independence

Mr Yousaf’s independence strategy was an unrealistic compromise designed to appease the restless factions within his own party. Under his plan, winning a majority of Scottish seats at the general election would have given the SNP a mandate to push for a second independence referendum.

In reality, neither Labour nor the Tories would have agreed to this.

Mr Swinney has instead stressed the need to build public support. “What I think our priority has got to be, is to spend less time discussing the mechanics and the thresholds about independence, but to start winning the arguments about why independence is an absolute necessity for people in Scotland,” he said over the weekend.

He rejected Mr Yousaf’s claim that independence is “frustratingly close”. But will SNP members lose patience if progress remains stalled?

Operation Branchform

Then there's the ongoing police investigation into the SNP’s funding and finances.

Former party chief executive Peter Murrell was arrested for a second time last month and charged with embezzlement of SNP funds. Party insiders are naturally braced for any further police activity.

Until the probe is brought to a close, it will continue to cast a shadow over the party.