Tony Blair v Keir Starmer: Why this Labour election landslide will feel very different

In 1997, a feel-good club hit captured the political zeitgeist. D:Ream's Things Can Only Get Better provided the upbeat, optimistic soundtrack to Tony Blair's landslide general election victory, and has become synonymous with that era. But what of this moment?

"I think if there was a theme tune this time it would be Things Can Only Get Better sung not by D:Ream, but by Leonard Cohen," Jim Murphy, the former Scottish Labour leader, told The Scotsman. “A morose sense of things surely can't get any worse, but hopefully they can get better."

Mr Murphy was just 29 when he unexpectedly won Eastwood – later renamed East Renfrewshire – in 1997. He arrived at the election count with just one speech in his pocket, which conceded defeat. "I wrote my victory speech walking up to the stage,” he recalled.

Tony Blair is greeted by supporters outside 10 Downing Street in May 1997. Picture: GERRY PENNY/AFP via Getty Images

With polls showing Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party on course for a huge majority on Thursday, comparisons with 1997 are widespread. Mr Murphy said the two campaigns shared a message of change, but added: "The difference was that in '97, it was a change rooted in optimism.”

There was “more drama” back then, too. “There was more cut and thrust and more dynamism,” he said. “This time, the big story of this election has been the opinion polls.”

It’s a view echoed by Henry McLeish, the former Labour first minister who was returned as the MP for Central Fife in 1997. "There was a pulse running through the country that change was on its way,” he recalled. The atmosphere is more cautious now.

"I do think that under Blair, when we were heading into that election, unlike now, I felt a tremendous sense of anticipation about what was coming down the line, what we were going to do,” he said. "And there's no doubt that in this kind of dull world that we live in, excitement is not something on the tip of everybody's tongue."

However, Mr McLeish, a former professional footballer as a young man, suggests it is like being asked to compare Pelé with Ronaldo. "It's often difficult to compare different social contexts at a moment in time with each other,” he said. “And while I think there was a lot of excitement around the Blair election, this is a completely different Britain. There is no doubt in my mind that it's a hesitant Britain, it's a confused Britain, it's a Britain out of Europe. There's a lot of apprehension, there's a lot of insecurity, a lot of anxiety. That wasn't around in '97."

Malcolm Chisholm, the Labour MP for Edinburgh North and Leith – formerly Edinburgh Leith – from 1992 to 2001, remembers being surprised by the scale of his party’s victory under Mr Blair.

"It's almost the opposite problem now,” he said. “I think the polls are not very helpful for Labour this time, because they're showing such big majorities, and I imagine it may well be the other way round and the majority is not as big as some of the polls are saying."

The financial backdrop is more difficult this time round, he said, but Labour’s platform is also more radical. "I think, in interesting ways, this manifesto is actually more radical than it was in 1997, which again is not necessarily the story on the street or the story of the campaign, but I think that's certainly an arguable case,” he said.

Jackson Carlaw, the former Scottish Conservative leader, spent the night of the 1997 election as a pundit on STV's results programme, watching and commenting as his party lost every one of its Scottish seats.

"I remember being sent to do Bernard Ponsonby's results show on STV, and they said 'look, you'll only be on until a victorious Tory candidate comes along to relieve you',” he said. “Six-and-a-half hours later, I was a very lonely and battle-scarred figure."

Mr Carlaw was then his party’s deputy chairman, and was closely involved in the election campaign. He said things are different now for a number of reasons. Notably, the rise of the SNP has created a distinct dynamic in Scotland.

"In Scottish terms, I don't feel this is going to be the rout that we saw in 1997, and I'm reasonably optimistic the Scottish Conservatives will emerge out of this still with a strong base and everything to fight for in 2026 [at the Scottish Parliament election],” he said.

There was a "hugely energised electorate" in 1997, Mr Carlaw said. "There was almost an evangelistic support for Tony Blair,” he recalled. “He galvanised votes. Nobody is saying to me on the doorsteps, 'Keir Starmer is the reason I'm voting in this election'. I've spoken to Labour figures who have said the same."

Mr Carlaw added: "It's not an election where, at the moment, people have been inspired to vote for somebody. They're voting for, more depressingly, negative reasons, largely speaking."

Raymond Robertson was a Scottish Tory MP defending a marginal seat in Aberdeen South in 1997. "There are similarities, but there are also big, big differences,” he said of the two elections.

He is scathing about the legacies of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. "The Johnson, Truss years were a disgrace and a debacle,” Mr Robertson said. “It was embarrassing to be a Conservative during that time. And in so many ways, the party now, under Rishi Sunak, is paying the price for Johnson and Truss."

He added: "In 1997, Tony Blair had to enthuse, had to inspire and had to come up with ideas. Now, I think Keir Starmer's tactic – and I can't fault him for it – is to bring calm."

Mr Robertson was appointed chairman of the party in Scotland after losing his seat. His job, he said, was to make sure it survived.

"That's no understatement,” he said. “Having lost all our MPs, the party was in dire straits. So my job was to make sure there was a party. The Scottish Parliament will ensure that, whatever happens to our MPs on July 4, there will still be national representatives. Remember, we didn't have that in '97.”

Mr McLeish said the stakes “are probably much higher” this time. Mr Chisholm, his old party colleague, said he is excited and optimistic about the prospect of an incoming Labour government. "It could be a more epoch-defining election than 1997 was, in my opinion,” he said.