The general election battle for the 'single biggest issue' facing Scotland

There’s one thing all the candidates for the Alloa and Grangemouth seat agree on - the future of the oil refinery there is of national importance.

Many, in fact, argue it is the single biggest issue facing central Scotland at the coming election. That is because Petroineos is preparing to shut its oil refinery in Grangemouth.

The company says the refinery will continue to run until 2025, when it will be turned into an oil import terminal that could risk hundreds of jobs. The political parties know this is a vitally important seat and what goes on in this constituency sets the path for Scotland’s economic and energy future.

No fewer than nine candidates have put themselves forward for election, one of the highest numbers in Scotland.

One is Kenny MacAskill. The former Scottish justice secretary was the Alba MP for East Lothian, after defecting from the SNP in 2021 - but he now hopes to become the MP for Alloa and Grangemouth instead.

Kenny MacAskill, Alba candidate for Alloa and Grangemouth. Image: Michael Gillen/National World.

“Grangemouth is the industrial closure of our time”, Mr MacAskill said. “I lived through the miners’ [closures] 40 years ago and I know it will be devastating for the whole of Scotland.

“We would become the only major oil producing nation without an oil refinery. That can’t be allowed to happen. The knock-on consequences for the industries around it and the implications for Scotland are huge, and that is why I am making a stand here.”

Mr MacAskill said Alba would put the refinery at the heart of a just transition, and stressed the threat of closure showed why Scotland needed independence. But he will need to see off competition from another experienced MP if he is to win - the SNP’s John Nicolson.

Since 2019, Mr Nicolson has represented Ochil and South Perthshire at the House of Commons, parts of which are now covered by the Alloa and Grangemouth borders.

Mr Nicolson said he believed his party could save the refinery from closure. “The SNP has included commitments to Grangemouth in its manifesto, and I have had a private meeting with the First Minister to get his personal assurance that he is committed to doing everything he can to keep these jobs,” he said.

John Nicolson, SNP candidate for Alloa and Grangemouth. Image: Michael Gillen/National World.

“The short-term future has been secured. But in the long term I think we should be prepared to take the refinery into public ownership if necessary - I would push for that.”

Despite the battle between two experienced politicians, they could both lose out to Labour’s Brian Leishman. Polling suggests he could narrowly win this seat on July 4.

Mr Leishman, who is a Perth and Kinross councillor, said: “It’s not just the 400 jobs at the refinery, it’s all the apprenticeships and supply chain as well, so it could be thousands of highly-skilled jobs - the impact is potentially catastrophic.

“This is the biggest industrial issue we’ve faced since the closure of the mines.”

The closure of the refinery would have impacts on multiple fronts, not least the hundreds who would be left unemployed. That is something Scottish Green candidate Nariese Whyte has on their mind.

They said: “The people who work at Grangemouth are totally shut off and are not hearing about what is happening at the site. The priority when it comes to the oil refinery is a just transition - we never wanted to see it play out like this.

Nariese Whyte, Scottish Green candidate for Alloa and Grangemouth. Image: Michael Gillen/National World.

“A just transition for the sake of the climate crisis can’t be achieved without the involvement of the unions and they have been frozen out. This affects everyone because we need a long-term plan to decarbonise and give workers the skills they need.”

Another issue is energy security, which is something Scottish Lib Dem candidate Adrian May is thinking of.

“It’s a blow to the local community, but also indicative of failures at a national level where the focus and competency of our current governments are substandard,” he said.

“I’m no nationalist, but self-sufficiency and energy security are the basics of a functioning nation, especially given the global shocks we’ve seen in the past couple of years.”

This position is echoed by Tom Flanagan from the Workers’ Party of Britain. He decided to stand because there was not a candidate he wanted to back, and he thought left-wing voters should be given a different option at the polls.

“For national security, it would put us in the pockets of despots and dictators,” Mr Flanagan said. “If we had our own refinery, we would be in a much more secure position.

Tom Flanagan, Workers’ Party of Britain candidate for Alloa and Grangemouth. Image: Michael Gillen/National World.

“It would be devastating to lose the refinery. We talk about a just transition, but look at the coal miners who never got that.”

The knock-on effect it could have on the price of fuel is also something Richard Fairley, a farmer from Larbert, is considering. He decided to stand for Reform UK for exactly that reason.

“Obviously if Grangemouth shuts because of the net-zero nonsense, it would be a travesty for Scotland,” he said. “Fuel is expensive enough, but if we had to import it, it would be £2 a litre.

Richard Fairley, Reform UK candidate for Alloa and Grangemouth. | supplied

“As a farmer, fuel is our biggest expense and relying on imported refined fuel is a recipe for disaster.” But by focusing so much on the future of Grangemouth, is that distracting from the other issues facing this constituency, such as poverty?

That’s something independent candidate Eva Comrie believes.

At the previous election she voted for the SNP’s John Nicolson, but said she had been disappointed - so was now standing against him.

She said: “Other parts of this constituency like Stenhousemuir, Larbert, Clackmannan and Alloa risk being forgotten about because of the focus on Grangemouth.

Eva Comrie, independent candidate for Alloa and Grangemouth. Image: Michael Gillen/National World.

“There is 51 per cent child poverty here, but the politicians are not talking about that. There are shocking figures for drug deaths, health inequalities and educational attainment throughout the whole area.

“If things continue, Clackmannanshire will plummet downhill at a rate of knots, in part because of the refinery.”

Rachel Nunn, the Scottish Conservative candidate, agrees.

Ms Nunn, who is a Stirling councillor, said: “It is quite a deprived area, and I feel a real responsibility to articulate what people’s needs are when they can’t articulate it well for themselves.

“Grangemouth is a massive issue, but there are other issues away from that around employment and anti-social behaviour, and there is quite an issue with domestic abuse in parts of Alloa. So we need to make sure women’s aid groups are properly funded and there are targeted employment opportunities. 

Rachel Nunn, Scottish Conservative candidate for Alloa and Grangemouth.

“But the biggest message I’ve been getting is around reskilling and the just transition.”

Poverty is something a lot of the candidates have seen first-hand while out campaigning in the constituency. 

Mr Nicolson spoke to The Scotsman after visiting a food bank in Larbert.

He said: “The cost-of-living crisis is the main issue people want to talk about. If you’re used to having kids being fed free school meals and then it comes to the holidays, that’s a real problem for you.

“The food bank tells me the school summer holidays are the busiest time and there is not enough awareness of that.”

Mr Leishman said he could empathise with the impact the cost-of-living crisis was having on businesses in the constituency.

For 13 years he worked as a golf professional at Braehead Golf Club in Alloa and Alva Golf Club in Sauchie. He said his business sales dropped by £32,000 because of “wage stagnation and increased bills impacting on discretionary leisure spend”.

“Clackmannanshire is a low-wage economy and people need to have income coming in to actively participate in society,” he said.

Brian Leishman, Scottish Labour candidate in Alloa and Grangemouth. Image: Michael Gillen/National World.

“What is regularly coming up on the doors is the cost-of-living crisis - everything is an uphill battle. One of the biggest scourges in this constituency is in-work poverty.

“The Joseph Rowntree Foundation says 28 per cent of Clackmannanshire this evening will go to bed hungry, which is very high. Some of the most deprived areas of Scotland are here.”

Mr May added: “It’s been a decade of distraction, and Alloa and Grangemouth, similar to many communities across Scotland, feels that impact acutely. The availability of affordable housing and a job that pays a living wage - these are the basics which we have to get right.

“The cost-of-living crisis has left everyone except the super rich poorer. We must address the source of these issues as a priority so we can all finally move forward.”

And Mr Fairley added: “The biggest issues are heating homes, feeding families and worries about immigration. It doesn’t matter what party you are, those are the things that need sorted.”

But ultimately, will everything that’s been thrown at the residents of Alloa and Grangemouth in recent years just put people off voting?

That’s something Mr Flanagan is worried will happen.

“There is a lot of apathy”, he said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if turnout is really low. I wouldn’t be surprised if Labour wins this election with less votes than they got in 2017 because people have switched off and stayed at home.

“There’s not the enthusiasm for an incoming Labour government, and that is not good for our politics.”