The 10 most surprising predictions for Scottish seats from 'wild' MRP polling

It is less than two weeks until the general election and candidates are starting to worry.

Whether it’s forecasts for Rishi Sunak to lose his seat, his ministers to be ousted, or the SNP to lose third party status, a series of polls have predicted results that would be huge shocks in their own right.

This comes in part down to the MRP polling system, which is widely accepted to be less reliable in Scotland than it is England, and also produces huge discrepancies with different pollsters.

With that said, here’s the ten most surprising predictions for Scottish seats from the polling.

Orkney and Shetland

Held by Alistair Carmichael for the Liberal Democrats in 2001, the seat has been held by the Liberal party before that, since 1950, who later merged with Lib Dems anyway. In 1935, it was won by the Unionist party. Naturally a More in Common poll now has it going SNP.

Edinburgh West

Another surprising prediction involving the Liberal Democrats is a gain for the SNP in Edinburgh West. Held by Christine Jardine since 2017, she increased her majority to 3,769 in 2019, and a loss would defy the national trend of the SNP vote falling.

Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber

Brendan O'Hara was the SNP MP for Argyll and Bute since 2015, with the Conservatives his main challenger, and Labour a distant fourth. Now the seat has been expanded to Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber, some MRP predictions have Labour winning the seat. This would be a result for the ages.

Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy

Labour are widely predicted to take Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy from the SNP, despite dropping its candidate Wilma Brown late-on following an investigation into her tweets. She been replaced by Melanie Ward, the CEO of Medical Aid for Palestinians, who is expected to win despite being a late replacement.

Every Glasgow Seat

Glasgow has six parliamentary seats, encompassing Glasgow Central, Glasgow East, Glasgow North, Glasgow North East, Glasgow North West, Glasgow South, and Glasgow South West. Currently all held by the SNP, a survey by Ipsos Mori predicts Labour will take every single one. While this may match the national picture, the lack of outliers suggests that the MPs themselves have little to do with the result.