Exclusive:SNP closing gap with Labour in Scotland but still set for heavy losses, finds new poll

The SNP is closing the gap with Labour in Scotland with just a week to go until the general election, a new poll for The Scotsman has found.

The poll by Savanta found the two parties are now neck and neck on vote share north of the border. However, Labour is still on course to win many more seats – 28 compared to the SNP’s 18 – due to the concentration of its support in the central belt.

Labour has dropped four points since the last Savanta poll for The Scotsman in mid June, while the SNP has gained one point, with both now on 34 per cent of the vote.

Meanwhile, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is claiming the support of one in eight 2019 Conservative voters north of the border.

Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said the poll was “mildly – but only mildly – encouraging for the SNP”.

John Swinney, the SNP leader and First Minister, has said his party winning a majority of seats in Scotland should result in talks to deliver a second independence referendum. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer previously said he will not engage in such negotiations. This poll would see the SNP fall well short of this goal.

Emma Levin, associate director at Savanta, said: “Our latest Scottish voting intention suggests that the gap between Labour and the SNP is closing in Scotland, although this would still mean Labour picking up 28 Scottish MPs and the SNP dropping to 18. Labour's vote in Scotland simply looks more efficient, as much of it is concentrated around the central belt, where there are many potential seats for them to pick up.

"The bigger picture is that Labour's seat count in Scotland looks like it's going to matter much less than it might have done six months ago. For the SNP, this election is about saving face after a challenging couple of years – if they achieve these results, they'll likely think they've done a pretty decent job of holding on."

Prof Curtice said: "Labour's lead may have disappeared – largely as a result of a drop in its support rather than because of any revival in the SNP's popularity. But thanks to its more concentrated vote in the central belt, even if Labour are only neck and neck with the SNP they are still likely to win many more seats.

“Meanwhile, there is little sign that John Swinney is making any significant progress in enhancing his personal popularity or in persuading voters that his party is united. And despite his attacks on the prospects for public spending under a UK Labour government, the SNP still trail Labour as the best party on health. As a result, it remains the case that only around two-thirds of current Yes supporters are minded to vote for the SNP.

“[Scottish Conservative leader] Douglas Ross must be worried that yet another poll has put his party at just 14 per cent, an outcome that would be a record low for the party in Westminster elections. Some of the damage is being done by Reform. Although Nigel Farage's party is not as popular as it is south of the border, it is now claiming the support of one in eight 2019 Conservative voters.”

Savanta interviewed 1,042 Scottish adults aged 16 and over online between June 21-25. Data was weighted to be demographically representative of Scottish adults by age, gender, region and past voting behaviour.

The Conservatives are on 14 per cent, which is a drop of one point since the last Savanta poll earlier this month, and the Liberal Democrats are on 7 per cent, which is unchanged. Reform UK is on 6 per cent and the Greens are on 2 per cent. ‘Other’ is on 2 per cent.

Prof Curtice said this would see Labour return 28 seats – a huge increase on its previous total of two – with the SNP on 18, a substantial drop on its existing tally of 43. The Conservatives would secure six seats – the same as in 2019 – and the Liberal Democrats five.

Voting intentions at Holyrood show the SNP on 37 per cent (+1) for the constituency vote, ahead of Labour on 35 per cent (unchanged). The Conservatives are on 14 per cent (-2), while the Liberal Democrats are on 8 per cent (+1) and ‘other’ is on 5 per cent (-1).

On the more proportional regional list vote, the SNP has pulled ahead of Labour on 31 per cent (+2), while the latter is on 29 per cent (unchanged). The Conservatives are on 17 per cent (+1), the Greens are on 9 per cent (-3) and the Liberal Democrats are also on 9 per cent (-1). ‘Other’ is on 4 per cent (-1).

Under analysis by Prof Curtice, this would give the SNP 46 MSPs, with Labour on 38. The Conservatives would have 23 MSPs, the Liberal Democrats 12 and the Greens 10.

Support for independence remains split, with 52 per cent in favour of remaining in the UK and 48 per cent backing separation, once undecideds are excluded.

It came as Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s Westminster leader, said Labour is on course for a super-majority. He urged voters to back the SNP to “hold them to account”.

Mr Flynn said: “With the Tory campaign collapsing into farce with the gambling scandal, it’s clear Keir Starmer is heading for a coronation and will swan into Downing Street with a Westminster super-majority – the only question left is who will hold him to account?

“The real choice at this election now is which party do people trust to stand up for Scotland’s priorities, defend Scotland’s values and always fight Scotland’s corner – it has to be the SNP.”

Mr Swinney urged voters to back the SNP to “protect our NHS”, with his party committed to lodging a Bill at Westminster to ban the privatising of the health service.

Elsewhere, the chairman of Reform UK said Nigel Farage is unlikely to campaign in Scotland ahead of next week’s vote. Richard Tice said that when Mr Farage had campaigned in Scotland previously, “it was dangerous, frankly”.

In 2013, Mr Farage had to be taken away in a police riot van after the Edinburgh pub where he was giving a press conference was surrounded by rowdy protesters.

Speaking at a hotel near Falkirk on Wednesday, Mr Tice said Mr Farage has to “think very carefully” about security. Asked if Mr Farage is afraid to come to Scotland, Mr Tice said the Reform leader is “incredibly busy”.

But he added that the “reality, unfortunately, for senior figures in the political climate, actually from a number of parties, but for Nigel, security and safety is a real issue, that is just the reality”.

Mr Tice added: “You have to look at that, you have to look at a whole range of issues and security is one of those.”

Reform UK is standing in all 57 seats in Scotland, with Mr Tice insisting that is “a reflection of the impetus, the hard work, the commitment that we as a party have got to Scotland”.

Meanwhile, former first minister Alex Salmond said Scotland is at a “pivotal moment in its history” as he launched the Alba Party manifesto.