Despite yet more terrible news for SNP, independence still hangs in balance

We’ve come a long way since 2022 when the then First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, presumptuously declared that the next election would be a “de facto referendum” on independence, as if one voter can decide for another what the ‘real’ issue is. Nevertheless, the SNP’s manifesto still states that if the party wins a majority of seats in Scotland, “the Scottish Government will be empowered to begin immediate negotiations with the UK Government to give democratic effect to Scotland becoming an independent country”.

Given we know those negotiations would be little more than a brief and blunt refusal if they took place at all, it’s completely pointless. The actual message is that instead of getting on with running the services the Scottish Government is responsible for, the SNP will continue to spend their time and energy – and our money – on fighting Westminster.

John Swinney launched the SNP manifesto in Edinburgh yesterday with familiar rhetoric about independence (Picture: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)

This fondness for legislative posturing can also be seen in the nationalists’ plan for a legal guarantee to keep the NHS in public hands. Those on ridiculously long NHS waiting lists who remember the Scottish Government's supposedly legally binding “Treatment Time Guarantee” know the worth of such laws which can be ignored or overturned by a future parliament.

A new poll by Savanta adds to the evidence that voters are getting weary of this kind of politics, with the SNP projected to win just 17 seats, down from their current 43, and Labour on 27. Any ‘Swinney bounce’ has belly-flopped. Given such figures, some unionists might be tempted to agree the election should be the second referendum the SNP have been demanding, but it’s probably better for all to agree it was always a silly idea.

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More serious unionists will note the country remains split down the middle on independence. If that's true when the SNP is in such a mess, what will happen when the party eventually recovers its credibility under a new leader, possibly Stephen Flynn? As Labour prepares for government, the party needs to think carefully about how to win a battle for hearts and minds which still remains very much in the balance.