Will Labour's VAT policy trigger an influx of pupils to Scotland's under-pressure state schools?

A key concern raised about Labour’s plans to end the VAT exemption on private school fees has been that it will add to pressure on state schools.

This is mainly because it is claimed many parents will decide to enrol their children in local authority-run primaries and secondaries due to rising costs. Private schools estimate this could be the case for 6,000 pupils north of the border - a 20 per cent fall.

However, the Institute of Fiscal Studies believes the decline is likely to be of between 3 per cent and 7 per cent, or 900 to 2,100 pupils in Scotland.

In theory, a significant increase in the pupil roll would only add to the existing strain in state schools, where staff are already struggling to cope with a staggering rise in the number of pupils with additional support needs, as well deteriorating behaviour.

However, roll projections show primary pupil numbers in state schools peaked in 2017 at over 400,300 and are now falling by 1.7 per cent a year, while in secondary schools they will peak next year at 316,600 and then decline by 1.2 per cent annually.

There should, therefore, be capacity in the state system, although existing pressures would not be eased by an influx.

Any impact would also vary by area. It is often claimed a quarter of school pupils in Edinburgh attend private schools and, while this is not accurate, the capital does have a significant proportion.

Close to 54,000 pupils attended state schools in Edinburgh last year, while 9,310 pupils living in Edinburgh are estimated to attend private schools. The next highest was Glasgow, where 3,170 private school pupils are thought to live, followed by Aberdeen with 2,530 and Perth and Kinross with 2,240.

Edinburgh, Glasgow and Perth and Kinross councils all confirmed to The Scotsman they have not yet seen any evidence of a rise in enrolments.

It is early days, however, with Labour still to win the election and set out the details of the policy and its timeline. Then, parents will have to consider what it means for them, and their children. After that, councils and state schools will find out.