SNP crisis: What happens if Humza Yousaf wins a vote of no confidence? Could he continue as First Minister?

Humza Yousaf is facing a vote on his future as First Minister - but even winning might not be enough to save him

Humza Yousaf’s future is hanging by a thread as he faces a vote of no confidence in him as First Minister.

After ending the Bute House Agreement and throwing the Scottish Greens out of government, he is now facing potentially two votes of no confidence.

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross has managed to push through the vote of no confidence in him as First Minister, and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has tabled a motion of no confidence in the entire Scottish Government. If Mr Sarwar gets the backing of 25 MSPs, his motion will also be pushed to a vote.

But what if both these attempts get quashed and Mr Yousaf wins the backing of Parliament? The Scotsman takes a look at all you need to know if Mr Yousaf wins the votes of no confidence.

READ MORE: What is a vote of no confidence? How does it work? When could a vote happen?

Is Humza Yousaf likely to win a vote of no confidence?

It is possible - but the parliamentary arithmetic means it is now down to just one MSP. That MSP is Alba’s Ash Regan.

She stood against Humza Yousaf to be SNP leader and then defected to Alex Salmond’s Alba Party. When she announced her defection, Mr Yousaf said she was “no great loss” to the SNP.

She has now written to the First Minister with a list of demands she needs from him to win her support, including a greater push for Scottish independence, protection of women’s sex-based rights, and a return to competent government.

Ms Regan has also suggested investment in the Grangemouth refinery could be a price of her support in the coming confidence vote.

In a letter to party members, Ms Regan said investment in the refinery – due to shut as early as next year and shift to an import and export terminal – would be a key demand for her support for Mr Yousaf.

Her party have launched a campaign to sustain jobs at the refinery. “A sign of good faith would be a significant Government investment, reinforcing the campaign to save the Grangemouth refinery from closure,” she said.

What happens if Humza Yousaf wins?

If he wins, technically he would continue on as First Minister and lead a minority SNP government.

However, it would be very difficult for him to stay if he only wins by a seat or two - there would continue to be mounting pressure on him to resign as First Minister.

Given he will no longer enjoy a majority in Parliament either, Mr Yousaf is not guaranteed to win any votes, meaning further no confidence votes could happen again in the future.

The same goes for if he loses a vote of no confidence in the Scottish Government - it would be hard to see how Mr Yousaf could stay on as First Minister.

READ MORE: Humza Yousaf: Is there anything left for SNP leader to ‘come out fighting’ for as no-confidence votes loom?