BCC lifts GDP forecast for 2017 but slams the Budget
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However, taking some of the gloss off, the organisation has downgraded its 2018 expectations slightly to 1.3 per cent from 1.4 per cent, and published its first forecast for 2019 of 1.5 per cent growth.
The BCC, whose global business network connects exporters with nearly 40 markets worldwide, also dismissed Chancellor Philip Hammond’s Budget last week as a “missed opportunity”.
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Director general Adam Marshall said in today’s update: “Thanks to the hard work of businesses and the continued resilience of the redoubtable British consumer, the UK economy is likely to grow somewhat more strongly than we’d previously expected during 2017.”
Britain’s services and manufacturing industries have both shown resilience since the UK’s surprise Brexit vote last summer.
The BCC’s economic upgrade for this year follows the Bank of England raising its forecast last month to 2 per cent from 1.4 per cent in November, which itself was a rise from just 0.8 per cent last August in the aftermath of the vote for the UK to quit the EU.
The BCC said that it had boosted this year’s growth forecast because of an upward revision to UK GDP growth data in the final quarter of 2016, and stronger than expected levels of consumer spending. There had also been a slight improvement in the outlook for investment and trade, compared to its previous forecast, the group added.
But Marshall said: “Last week’s Budget was a missed opportunity for the government to double down on infrastructure improvements and support for international trade, and to lower the heavy up-front taxes and costs that undermine business investment.
“More thoughtful and radical moves to improve the business environment would give businesses – and GDP forecasts – a boost during a critical and complex time.”
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Marshall said that there were several years of unspectacular growth ahead, and that “coupled with inflationary pressures… it has never been more important to tackle the long-standing constraints that limit business confidence and growth”.