Scottish retailers suffer April washout but spring heralds ‘grounds for cautious optimism’

Latest figures were distorted by the earlier timing of Easter this year.

Scottish shoppers failed to provide some Easter cheer for retailers with sales falling across the board though there are “grounds for cautious optimism” looking ahead, industry leaders said.

Releasing its latest sales monitor, the Scottish Retail Consortium (SRC) noted that its figures for last month and March had been heavily distorted by a year on year comparison with 2023. This year, the run-up to Easter was in March, while last year the run-up took place in April.

As a result, last month saw a hefty 4.8 per cent fall in total sales by value, compared with April 2023 and once adjusted for the effects of inflation. That had followed a 1.5 per cent year on year increase in March, again after being adjusted for inflation. When correcting for the distortion created by the earlier timing of Easter this time round, the average decline for March and April 2024 combined was 0.2 per cent.

April was not a vintage month for retailers, with poor weather and Easter timing distortions taking their toll on store takings.

SRC director David Lonsdale said: “Scottish retail sales tumbled in April compared to the same trading period the year before. Much of this can be attributed to Easter falling unusually early this year, into March, which brought forward shopper purchases and meant shopper footfall and spending in April was constrained. The decline was felt across the board with food retailing, DIY, gardening, furniture and household appliances all suffering.

“That said, there are some grounds for cautious optimism,” he added. “Recent reductions in employee national insurance contributions and the freeze in council tax should hopefully support demand over the months ahead, especially with shop price inflation at its lowest level for two and a half years and average wages growing in real terms.”

The latest data showed that total food sales fell by 3 per cent last month, compared with April 2023. Total non-food sales slumped 4.9 per cent in April, year on year. Adjusted for the estimated effect of online trading, those non-food sales were down by 7.1 per cent.

Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer, retail and leisure at KPMG, which helps to produce the monthly sales monitor, added: “Retailers will be hoping that there might still be an early summer interest rate cut, a strong performance from Scotland in the Euros, and an uptick in temperatures.”